Natural Gas
Weekly Update
Sept 9, 2024
Still Hot
The global temperature spike is still ongoing. August was another month of very hot atmospheric conditions (chart L48HDD2024).
Although the atmospheric temperature spike sample size is still relatively small, the odds strongly favour a mild fall and winter because of the present spike.
The spike sequence seems to be tied to the El Nino phase. The El Nino leads to a warming of both the global troposphere and the northern hemisphere (chart SOI9NHLT). The lag between the El Nino and the atmospheric warming is about nine months.
The northern hemisphere warming then leads into warming of the atmosphere directly over the U.S. L48 (chart L48NHLT). It is clear that the strong El Nino-induced Northern Hemispheric [NH] temperature spikes lead to substantial atmospheric warming over the L48. However, although the warming outcome always develops, the duration and timing of the warming is....