Here Comes Portugal

Greece is working hard to get back on the front pages. Unless private creditors can agree with the Greek government about a 50% “haircut”, Greece will likely default by March when the next tranche of contingent bailout money is due. The Greek government and the creditors continue to play a game of .....

More >

Beginning of the End, Beginning of the Beginning

Chesapeake’s announcement of a cut back in gas rigs plus 0.5 Bcf/d of shut-ins is a sign of the required supply behavioural shift required to move the System to LS/LD. It is also a sign of the coming supply shock that will open the door .....

More >

The U.S. Dollar - Where To From Here

The U.S. dollar represents a gauge measuring the markets’ move toward high return/higher risk ($US falling) or risk aversion ($US rising). Longer term, we expect the U.S. dollar to continue its downward trend as the U.S. government issues massive amounts of new debt. However, in the short term, the dollar was rising as risk aversion grew. A major spike in the $US could cause a lot of commodity selling as speculators are leveraged to the long commodities/short $US trades. The dollar index rallied as the risk aversion trade was on and a great deal of uncertainty shrouded the European debt crises of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and others, but is again weakening relative to other unpegged currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted gauge against the Euro, Yen, Pound, and three other currencies.

More >